U.S. President Donald Trump shows an executive order on "reciprocal tariffs" at the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., the United States, on April 2, 2025. Amid widespread opposition, U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order on the so-called "reciprocal tariffs," imposing a 10-percent "minimum baseline tariff" and higher rates on certain trading partners. (Photo: Xinhua)

With US government's 90-day "reciprocal tariff" grace period set to expire on July 9, pressure is mounting on Washington's trade talks with key partners. The Trump administration has made clear that it won't extend the tariff pause, and unless new deals are reached, punitive measures will take effect, according to AP. As of Tuesday, only a limited agreement with the UK has been secured, while negotiations with other major economies remain stalled. The Global Times examines the key sticking points—and whether any last-minute breakthroughs are still possible.

European Union

A Tuesday Bloomberg report states that the EU is willing to accept a trade arrangement with the US that includes a 10 percent universal tariff on many of the bloc's exports, but wants the US to commit to lower rates than that on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft.

The EU is also pushing the US for quotas and exemptions to effectively lower Washington's 25 percent tariff on automobiles and car parts as well as its 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum, according to people familiar with the matter. The European Commission, which handles trade matters for the EU, views this arrangement as slightly favoring the US but still something it could agree to, said the people, according to Bloomberg. 

Officials outlined four potential scenarios ahead of next week's deadline: a deal with an acceptable level of asymmetry; an unbalanced US offer that the EU could not accept; extending the deadline to allow negotiations to continue; or Trump walks away from talks and hikes tariffs, the report said.

The EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is flying to Washington on Tuesday to meet with his US counterparts, and has welcomed draft proposals from the US, according to Reuters. 

Sefcovic said the EU had received the first drafts of proposals from the US for an eventual agreement. "The ninth of July is round the corner so for me, it's always a good sign when we move from the exchange of views into the drafting process," he said, as Reuters reported.

Cui Hongjian, director of the Department of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on Friday that one major challenge in US-EU trade talks lies in the high level of competition between the two sides in key sectors, particularly the auto industry, which is a top priority for Trump and where transatlantic rivals are largely interchangeable.

The EU's core strategy has been to make proactive concessions to reach a deal with the US — such as offering to increase investment in the US and purchase more American goods, he said. However, Washington has so far shown limited willingness to reciprocate. Cui said Europe's growing reliance on the US in areas such as trade, energy and security has emboldened the US to apply pressure. From Washington's perspective, the EU holds few strong bargaining chips and, even if no trade deal is reached, the US could use leverage in other areas to force concessions.

Japan and South Korea

Public reports show that auto tariffs remain at the center of Japan-US trade talks. In an interview on June 29, US President Donald Trump said Japan's auto trade was unfair, signaling he would not back down from imposing a 25 percent tariff on imported vehicles. Analysts say this underscores the difficulties both sides face in making progress on the issue.

According to a report by RFI, Japan's auto exports to the US are currently taking a heavy hit. Although the two sides have held seven rounds of tariff negotiations, the US has refused Japan's request to lower tariffs.

Liu Junhong, an expert on Japan at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times that both Japan and the US place high importance on the competitiveness of their auto exports, and neither side is willing to compromise. In each round of negotiations, Japan has offered "alternative proposals" in hopes of persuading the US to lower auto tariffs — such as cooperating in high-end semiconductor manufacturing, shipbuilding and aviation and rare earth technologies.

He noted that Japan appears willing to accept nearly all US conditions if tariffs on autos are reduced to a lower level, such as 2.5 percent or zero. However, the US remains firm on its position: Unless American cars can enter the Japanese market, there will be no deal on tariffs.

Liu said the gap over auto tariffs remains a key obstacle to any agreement. "For Japan, the government is negotiating on behalf of its auto industry. So the question now is whether the industry itself will eventually soften its stance."

Auto tariffs are also a central issue in South Korea-US trade negotiations. Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao reported that as a key manufacturing hub for automobiles, semiconductors and batteries, South Korea is currently facing weak domestic consumption. If the US implements a 25 percent "reciprocal tariff," it would deal a serious blow to South Korean economy.

Besides, according to a report by Hong Kong's Ta Kung Pao, South Korea's auto exports fell by 3.8 percent year-on-year in April, with exports to the US plunging by 19.6 percent. 

However, during his campaign on May 18, South Korea's presidential frontrunner said Seoul should not rush a trade deal with the US and called for a coordinated response with other countries to US tariffs, arguing that Washington risked isolation with its policy, according to Reuters report.

Zhan Debin, director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies at the Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times that South Korea is in no rush to conclude a deal. "Reaching an agreement too early may not be in Seoul's interest. South Korea is closely watching the progress of talks between the US and other competitors like Japan and the EU," he said. He added that with the Lee Jae-myung administration newly in office and the cabinet not yet fully formed, Seoul may also use this as a reason to seek more time from Washington.

Zhan noted that South Korea's goal is to return to the original Korea-US Free Trade Agreement, under which both sides maintain zero tariffs — something the US is unlikely to accept. Moreover, while South Korea prefers to keep the tariff talks focused on trade, the US may be pushing for a broader negotiation package that includes issues, such as defence cost-sharing.

ASEAN countries

Under the pressure of the US' "tariff stick," Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia all expressed willingness to make adjustments and negotiate with the US to avoid steep tariffs, according to Lianhe Zaobao. According to media reports, the US has pressured Vietnam to reduce its use of Chinese materials and technology in its production processes — part of ongoing tariff negotiations aimed at reshaping supply chains.

Ge Hongliang, a deputy director of the ASEAN College at Guangxi University for Nationalities, told the Global Times that the US has repeatedly pressured ASEAN countries on supply chain security, urging them to take sides between China and the US. While most ASEAN members have expressed willingness to engage in talks with Washington, there is a growing consensus within the bloc that the "reciprocal tariffs" undermine global trade order.

Ge noted that Southeast Asian countries are unlikely to take the lead in negotiations with the US, and are more likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach. At the same time, ASEAN is stepping up internal coordination to prevent individual members from compromising broader regional interests.

India

According to media reports, with just over a week remaining until the July 9 deadline, trade negotiations between India and the US remain in stalemate, prompting Indian negotiators to extend their stay in Washington in a last-ditch effort to break the impasse.

The prolonged talks highlight the depth of unresolved differences, particularly in sensitive areas such as agriculture, dairy, textiles and steel. Despite months of discussions, both sides remain divided, raising doubts over whether even a limited deal can be reached before the deadline.

US political news outlet Politico cited sources familiar with the matter as saying that Washington and New Delhi continue to make progress toward the first phase of a trade deal, with the expectation that a more comprehensive agreement could come later in the fall. However, the White House's push to "open up India" in pursuit of a major trade victory ahead of President Trump's self-imposed July 8 deadline — along with efforts to link the talks to sensitive geopolitical issues in the region — has made it increasingly difficult for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government to secure domestic support for the deal.

Xie Chao, an associate research fellow at the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times that India initially viewed the Trump administration's 26 percent "reciprocal tariff" as a positive signal, hoping to be the first to strike a trade deal with the US. However, talks have fallen short of expectations, and with the UK now reaching an agreement, India is no longer fixated on going first.

Key sticking points remain in areas such as auto parts, steel and agriculture — sectors closely tied to the Modi administration's industrial policies and rural voter base, leaving India with little room to compromise, Xie noted.

He added that geopolitical tensions have further complicated negotiations. Following renewed India-Pakistan friction, the US has reengaged with Pakistan, including visits by senior Pakistani military officials to Washington. India's unease over these moves has heightened diplomatic strains with the US, making trade talks even more difficult.